Official UFC 168 "Rousey vs Tate II" thread.

[Ronald_Frump]

What are your predictions for the biggest WMMA match-up of the year?

I say Ronda will sub Miesha quicker than last time.......around the 2 minute mark. I also think the ref will be under orders to stop the action, before an arm is ripped out of its socket - whether Miesha taps or not.....similar to this:



Granted, Miesha is cute as a cupcake.....hmmm, dat ass 



...but Ronda ain't having none of that.....



Miesha may think she's in with a chance.....



.....and what does Ronda think about that?



Either way, Stewie predicts:

Rousey by armbar. 

[Ronald_Frump]

Just to explain how technical Ronda is, check out the Gracie breakdown. Remember, she is such a natural, that she does this stuff without even thinking about it. 

[Ronald_Frump]

"War Rousey!"

[Ronald_Frump]

Miesha Tate: "It's No Secret, I Want To Punch the Girl in the Face!"

[Ronald_Frump]

Rousey vs Tate II

[sammy_scuffles]

I say Ronda will sub Miesha quicker than last time.......around the 2 minute mark. I also think the ref will be under orders to stop the action, before an arm is ripped out of its socket - whether Miesha taps or not.....similar to this:

You do realise the referee stops that one because Carmouche taps right? For whatever reason MMA referees don't stop fights for submission holds without an actual submission, it's just not the done thing - see Frank Mir breaking Nogueira's arm for a recent example. Regardless, Miesha ought to have learned her lesson. She can't afford the time out for a broken arm so she should be sensible enough to tap.

Ronda by first round armbar seems the most likely outcome. I don't even think Tate should be in this fight because she's a last-start loser. A loss should never EVER get you a title shot in my book, even if it's a close decision. Getting knocked out and getting a tittle shot for it is flat out stupid. That said, Ronda's perfectly capable of screwing up and losing to Tate - she nearly did it against Carmouche of all people. It's her fight to lose but I sure as heck wouldn't bet my house on her after seeing that one.

Plus (and I never thought I'd be saying this) I'll be cheering for Tate after seeing a few bits and pieces of TUF. I can't stomach someone behaving like Rousey did, it was just awful.

[DR]

I too will be cheering for the underdog Miesha this time. Ronda's attitude is something I do not appreciate at all. It may very well be just a show business act, but showing a little bit more respect and being less cocky never hurts.

As much as I'd like Miesha to kick her ass this time, the most probable outcome will be Ronda by armbar submission again.

War Miesha!

[Ronald_Frump]

You do realise the referee stops that one because Carmouche taps right? For whatever reason MMA referees don't stop fights for submission holds without an actual submission, it's just not the done thing - see Frank Mir breaking Nogueira's arm for a recent example.

• Yes, I can see she taps 
• On your second point, I take umbrage. The bad publicity caused by a grisly arm-break is not what the UFC want - especially for WMMA. Its only like a doctor's forced stoppage trumps an idiot who refuses to tap etc.

[sammy_scuffles]

The UFC also has absolutely zero control over the referee - that's entirely the business of whatever commission is overseeing the event. I'm sure the UFC would prefer that people tap before suffering serious injuries of course, but it's a fighter's responsibility. Dan Hardy vs GSP is a good example of why that is - check out the armbar and the Kimura that happened in those fights. They're super deep but Hardy managed to wriggle his way out of both and took the fight the distance because of it. There was an awesome Invicta fight not that long ago as well where something similar happened, but I can't quite remember who that was - I want to say Waterson vs Penne but I don't think that was the one.

The only time I've seen referees stop a contest in the way you're suggesting is in grappling tournaments for kids and teens divisions. Even in BJJ adults have to take full responsibility for their own safety and tap promptly.

Regardless, hopefully Tate learned her lesson last time.

Edit: It was that fight.



Under your rule this fight would be stopped - I know I was yelling at her to tap - but she knew what she was doing. Apparently. She went and won after all.

[Ronald_Frump]

So I got it wrong, lol! Took her till round 3 - helluva fight by all accounts!



review courtesy bloodyelbow

[sammy_scuffles]

Apparently Rousey vs Tate was 'Fight of the night' and Rousey also picked up submission of the night, so that clearly didn't do her bank balance any harm.

In other news: Rousey vs McMann will headline UFC 170 which should be quite interesting.

I haven't seen the fight yet, but nice to see that the girls put on a show. Less nice to see that Ronda decided to take the jackass route and turn down a handshake from Tate at the end of the fight. Classy stuff.

[lucad]

Indeed it was an helluvafight...

Two skilled warriors....really: my hat off to those ladies.

But this was actually the first time I saw Ronda for what she is: just another human being who will encounter soon a bad night where she gets beaten.
I mean, I didn't think that she would have won every single fight by first round armbar, but I was among those who think there is no actual competition for her in WMMA. Well, from yesterday evening I'm sure there's plenty of it. Miesha Tate has a great heart but IMO is probably not even in the top 5 135pounders. And still she gave Ronda competition.

I've been watching fights for a long time now and I can sense when a fighter hates to get hit in the face, and Ronda is surely one of that kind. I mean, Miesha's face was damaged and Ronda's was uncut, that means she took many more shots than Ronda. But I never had the sensation she would risk to get hurt, while even those few blows that Miesha threw at Ronda's face looked dangerous, because Ronda can't absorbe any IMO. For a moment in the first round I felt that if Miesha was able to strike some more, she would catch Ronda for good. And I had the clear feeling that Ronda was desperate to bring the fight to the ground to survive, not just because she has a better grappling than any other girl. She can't last striking with virtually no girl in the division....that's a bold statement I know but that's what I'm seeing right now!

Every punch she eat, she remains stunned for a moment or two, and someone is gonna capitalize on that sooner or later. For this reason, it's such a shame that the phenom Miriam Nakamoto just blew her knee in the last invicta bout...and she is 36 already...I would have loved to see her vicious knees in the octagon...she would test all of my statements about Ronda. Try to clinch with a Muay Thai queen Ronda, and then eat one of those knees, one is enough and youre done!

I'm not saying that Ronda has a bad striking tecnique, in fact she landed way more shots than Miesha, I'm implying she has no chin at all. And I think its quite normal for a life long judo player.

So, what is gonna happen when she'll meet someone who can keep the fight standing? I.e. what is gonna happen when she'll meet Sara McMann on February? Will it be so easy taking down an olympian wrestler? Or will Sara take her down instead (in fact Miesha was able to score the first takedown ever against Ronda)? And what about the strenght and the size of Sara McMann. She is beast, are the judo tricks going to be enough to take her on the ground and power some submission?

That being said, I still see Ronda as a slight favourite against Sara because of:
- Sara's long inactivity and unknown physical shape and condition;
- Ronda's personality and winning mentality, which I think is the real edge she has over the other girls (though if someone can match it, that is actually fellow olympian Sara McMann);   

If I had to judge only technically, I'd pick McMann winning the fight, at least the Sara McMann I believe she is (Im not completely sure about her level yet, she had just a few fights in mma).
Better said, given an average MMA female fighter (which I'm not sure does exist at the moment), with good takedown and submission defense and good striking, I see Ronda losing.

Cause, since yesterday, I saw for the first time she is human and HAS MANY MANY HOLES IN HER GAME!!!

[Ronald_Frump]

Firstly, I've not seen the match yet, so I can't comment on the details.....

So, what is gonna happen when she'll meet someone who can keep the fight standing? I.e. what is gonna happen when she'll meet Sara McMann on February? Will it be so easy taking down an olympian wrestler? Or will Sara take her down instead (in fact Miesha was able to score the first takedown ever against Ronda)? And what about the strenght and the size of Sara McMann. She is beast, are the judo tricks going to be enough to take her on the ground and power some submission?

The problem is, none of these women have one-hit knockout punching power - Cyborg included. Don't forget, she couldn't KO Gina. Its all swarming with roundhouse punches and cumulative effect. How effective was Kaufman in applying good (by WMMA srtandards) striking to prevent the Rousey clinch? Not very.
McMann's greatest strength is her wrestling takedown. Sure she can get the takedown, but if she couldn't control Baszler's submission attemps from there, I doubt she could defend Rousey's armbar beyond round 1. Ronda is just as lethal off her back - forget all this talk of "superior bjj groundwork > Rousey's newaza" ..... Ronda has Olympic-level grappling and until one of these bjj gals steps into the cage to prove me wrong, its immaterial.

If I had to judge only technically, I'd pick McMann winning the fight, at least the Sara McMann I believe she is (Im not completely sure about her level yet, she had just a few fights in mma).

Cause, since yesterday, I saw for the first time she is human and HAS MANY MANY HOLES IN HER GAME!!!

The last bit, I agree with. However, regarding this bit:

Better said,  given an average MMA female fighter (which I'm not sure does exist at the moment), with good takedown and submission defense and good striking, I see Ronda losing.

[sammy_scuffles]

Stewie I think you might be just a tiny bit biased!

It's I've seen some highlights now and it's interesting to note that Tate actually tried to take Rousey down repeatedly. It didn't work too well because at least two of those times she got thrown and Rousey ended up on top. Part of that was good Judo and part of it was that the shots Tate took were surprisingly lame. No drive in them at all. The one time Tate did put her on her back though she didn't look super-threatening. She probably still got the best of it, but nowhere near as dominant and dangerous as her top game. I honestly still think you're overrating Ronda's ground game. Her top game is very good - not perfect, there's still flaws there - but her guard is definitely not outstanding from a pure grappling perspective. Above average for WMMA sure, but that's not the best measuring stick for now. I absolutely think there's girls in the smaller weight classes that have a better technical guard than Rousey. This makes perfect sense too, because judo doesn't even have a word for what BJJ players call guard. If you're on your back in Judo you're losing.

You also seem to have this idea in your head that McMann won't have great takedown defense. Wrestling isn't all about blast doubles. She will have excellent clinch work because you simply don't make it to the top levels of wrestling without it. If McMann wants to stay standing (which I think is her best plan) she's 100% certain going to be harder to take down than anyone in the division. Now I think Ronda's standup grappling is probably too good for her to go several rounds without finding a takedown against anyone at 135 but McMann is definitely the best candidate for keeping it standing. You're right in saying that she doesn't have KO power but if she can keep the fight standing for extended periods that's completely unexplored territory for a Rousey fight. Which would be fun.

I'll actually be really interested to see how McMann approaches the fight. That is, whether she goes for takedowns or whether she tries to use her wrestling to keep it standing. I would expect her to want to stand up and bang if she can. I hope that's how it goes because really I want to see this awesome boxing that Ronda's camp keep telling us she has.

I'd still make Ronda a good favourite in this one for sure because I think McMann's ground game is a little too loose for her to hang on the ground (although the Gaff fight was pretty impressive - I'm discounting that a little because I reckon MY ground game is better than Gaff's) but she's definitely got a skill set that's not like anything Ronda's fought yet in MMA. Hopefully that makes for a good fight and takes Ronda somewhere she hasn't had to go yet.

I think I rambled a bit there. Long story short, every time you think Ronda really is the best grappler in the world just repeat to yourself: "Nearly got choked out by Liz Carmouche"

[lucad]

Ok Stewie, I was partially joking...I knew I was pushing your buttons with those statements on Ronda.. 

I didn't mean Ronda is an average MMA fighter right now, though I'm starting to believe she will be when the skill level in WMMA will evolve eventually in the near future.
Now I can see that the ones who saw many similarities between the Royce Gracie first fights and Ronda's were damn right. Two different eras ok, but the inability of defending against Ronda's judo of these girls is similar to the inability of defending against Royce's bjj.

Until now, Ronda has been using her world class judo to throw these girls like ragdolls whenever she wanted and whenever they clinched and whenever she felt at risk standing. And this has been her real strenght, more than her ground game, which is very good but nothing phenomenal or unprecedented. My question is: how long can this last? Is it going to be like this forever? Because I really love judo, and acknowledge Ronda's judo is world class, but there are many ways to defend it, at least preventing her to throw them literally at will...
Ive listened many commentaries which defined Miesha's gameplan the worse ever, cause she was keeping going for those double legs with no effectiveness and thus giving Ronda extra momentum for her throws. Watch the fight and Miesha did that same dumb move at least 4 times in the first 2 rounds.

I dont think Sara McMann will make it that easy for Ronda. And, again, I dont see Ronda winning standing with any of those girls (you dont need 1 punch KO power Stewie, I agree that no one has it in WMMA right now - let alone for Miriam Nakamoto's Muay Thai knees and elbows - you just need 2-3 minutes straight standing against her and she's in big trouble....maybe Im wrong but that's what I see!).

I not only agree with Sammy that being a wrestler implies having a strong clinch game, I also believe that Sara is the first real legitimate fighter that Ronda will meet throughout her career (at least on paper, because I still dont know how good she actually is).
I mean: Julia Budd, Sarah Kaufman (lost to half her size Jessica Eye recently!), Liz Carmouche (lost by tko to Alexis Davis, another one I would love to see against Ronda!), Miesha Tate (got smashed for 2 rounds and a half by Julie Kedzie recently!) is not even competition!!!
This is what they mean when they compare Ronda with Royce: she has been lucky, smart, keen enough to enter the MMA world at the exact right moment of time, she'll get quite rich and famous and she deserves it! But not only she is far from invincible, she would have never dominated like this if some real competition from other martial arts would have entered MMA before...

Perhaps Ronda will prove me wrong, but since yesterday I'm among those doubters